Current trajectory estimates are more like +2.5C to +3C by 2100 based on existing policy. We’ve actually managed to move the trajectory downward even though we obviously have a lot to go. Every little bit counts. It is far less binary than this overly simplistic tweet is suggesting

Excessive claims like this end up demotivating people and make them want to give up when we can reduce the damage each time we move our trajectory down by 0.1C

If the filibuster is removed, it is also possible to get through with 50+VP as tie breaker or 51. The filibuster being removed is not as unlikely as you may think since Republicans right now are getting closer and closer towards defacto removing the filibuster. There currently are narrow ways around the filibuster (reconsideration is one big one) that are supposed to have a bunch of limitations, but they are testing the waters in ignoring violations of those limitations. The senate parliamentarian is the one who makes rulings about if something violates their clauses, but their opinion can be ignored by a strict majority via the “nuclear option”

A month ago, Republicans used the nuclear option to ignore the senate parliamentarian ruling that the Congressional Review Act would not allow them to skip the filibuster to remove California’s EPA waivers (see here).

As I write this Republicans are currently trying to play another different a different trick about some of the stuff in the Big Beautiful Bill. Dems have been challenging a bunch of provisions and getting the parliamentarian to most of the time rule they are in violation of the Byrd rule. But they are also trying to challenge the whole bill as violating the Byrd rule’s limit that a bill passed via reconsecration cannot increase the deficit over a ten-year period. Republicans are playing an accounting trick to claim it doesn’t. They know the parliamentarian is unlikely to agree with them, so they are currently trying to prevent dems from even being able to ask the parliamentarian about it

Yep, and even larger can be overcome too. If you look AOC’s 2018 primary upset, she was outspent by over 10x

Insane outspending can be overcome. Obviously it makes the fight harder, but money is not everything

Because they massively outspent Zohran in the primary and still lost. Vote because you can still overcome this. They want us to give up and think we can’t. Don’t do their dirty work for them

Hope does not mean blind hope. It does not mean you will always win. It means knowing that you can

Always try. No matter how hopeless it seems, you always have the possibility to win a seemingly impossible fight. This a shining example of overcoming and winning big

Giving up is a guaranteed loss. That is what they want us to do. Never give in

They poured millions and million and massively outspent Zohran and still lost. Zohran had no name recognition, and was virtually a nobody in February. The establishment worked hard against him and still lost. They rolled out shameless endorsement of Cuomo after shameless endorsement (like Bill Clinton, apparently). The establishment didn’t lose for a lack of effort. This could happen anywhere next

If they ignore it, the progressives are starting to get ready to take it in the primaries themselves. There’s been an increase in young progressives running for state & local office following these results

(https://bsky.app/profile/amandalitman.bsky.social/post/3lsflzpcjlk2i)

A historically massive over performance of the polls and how the candidate (Lander) who is third on the first round is also a progressive

Few polls had Zohran winning. Even the polling that had Zohran winning had him losing the first round vote by a fair amount and only flipping to win in the 7th round. No polling had him winning the 1st round. He’s just won the first round by like 7% of the vote. He’s not far from 50% of the vote outright on round one

We won’t have the official results from the later ranked choice rounds until July 1st, but just ~60% of Lander’s #2 votes alone would push him above 50% even if all candidates below Lander went 100% Cuomo for #2. Lander cross endorsed Zohran and told his supporters to rank Zohran #2

If they get him on state charges, only the Minnesota Board of Pardons can do that. Which consists of the Governor Tim Walz (D), Chief Justice of the Minnesota Supreme Court (appointee of Walz), and Minnesota Attorney General (D)

This isn’t the first large nationwide protest of his second term and it won’t be the last. For instance, the Hands Off ones in April were number 6 on that list. They’re getting larger and there is already planning for the next nationwide ones. Or more broadly, here’s the cumulative number of protests including smaller ones too

Alt National Park Service’s estimate:

We’re honored to report that over 11 million showed up for today’s No Kings protest, and totals are still coming in. Just… wow. WOW 😮! There’s nothing more to say.

https://bsky.app/profile/altnps.bsky.social/post/3lrmce3muts2c

EDIT: also organizers within 50501 estimate at >11 million (50501 is one of the groups involved in the No Kings protests) https://bsky.app/profile/50501movement.bsky.social/post/3lrmozcmqx223

I think you are equating those with disruptive. Peaceful doesn’t necessarily mean non-disruptive. Peaceful and disruptive protests can certainly still make people in power sweat

Strikes are peaceful and disruptive

Shutting down freeways can be peaceful and disruptive

Boycotts are peaceful and can be disruptive

Sit-ins are peaceful and can be disruptive

etc.

Not that 3.5% is necessarily an iron-clad guarantee

It’s far more global than people think. Here’s global estimates in 2019

We estimate that over 90% of farmed animals globally are living in factory farms at present. This includes an estimated 74% of farmed land animals (vertebrates only) and virtually all farmed fish.[1] However, there is substantial uncertainty in these figures given the land animal estimates’ heavy reliance on information from Worldwatch Institute with unclear methodology[2] and limited data on fish farming.

https://www.sentienceinstitute.org/global-animal-farming-estimates

Actually not fully true about not being able to get a smokey flavor with some electric grills. From the original article:

some electric grills do offer a way to introduce wood smoke — usually with a tin of wood chips that burn as the food cooks

There’s one important detail that you might be missing here: Republicans are coming for the filibuster indirectly despite profusely saying how much they valued preserving senate rules

They are overriding the senate parliamentarian to do this. They are carving out the filibuster without saying they’re doing so. Right now it’s on some more technical details, but they are setting precedent that they can ignore the parliamentarian. The senate parliamentarian is the one who decides what counts as budget related for reconciliation (which is used as a narrow way around the filibuster strictly for budget). If they can just declare anything budget related and ignore the parliamentarian, they can push all kinds of stuff through that they otherwise couldn’t get through now

Through the series of votes Wednesday, Republicans set precedent for the Senate to reject the state EPA waivers with a simple majority vote. They made that move even after the Senate parliamentarian agreed with the Government Accountability Office that California’s policies are not subject to the Congressional Review Act, a law that allows Congress to reject federal regulations under certain circumstances

AI detectors are massively flawed. They have terrible accuracy and have high numbers of false positives. Especially over short bodies of text like parts of one page

You can use xcancel or other nitter mirrors like

https://xcancel.com/atrupar/status/1922680043332878521

Same person is also on Bluesky and made an identical post there

https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3lp5dvd4j4d2c

Overall in net, there is not much way around the fact that we have to reduce consumption and production of fish to end overfishing. Even fish farms often use wild caught fish as feed

Labels that get funding by producers paying to have them tend to not work out well. Massive conflict of interests emerge. Here’s some articles ranging from 2013 to 2023 showing different problems with the MSC’s labels

Scores of organisations have expressed concern that the MSC’s certification process does not properly account for bycatch, particularly of sharks and cetaceans. In 2018, a group of 66 conservation groups and academics accused the MSC of not paying enough attention to the protection of species not specifically targeted by fisheries.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/26/blue-ticked-off-the-controversy-over-the-msc-fish-ecolabel

Report: Half of MSC-certified ‘sustainable’ tuna caught with controversial gear

Biologist Susanna Fuller, co-director of marine programs at Canada’s Ecology Action Centre, agrees. “We know … that blue stamp doesn’t mean that you’re sustainable,” she says. When asked if consumers should choose MSC-labeled seafood, Fuller pauses. “It’s a gamble,” she says.

https://www.npr.org/2013/02/11/171376509/is-sustainable-labeled-seafood-really-sustainable

Update, has been released from custody

https://www.northjersey.com/videos/news/essex/2025/05/09/newark-nj-mayor-ras-baraka-released-from-custody/83545443007/

The administration is also folding in many, though not all, of these cases. Just with 10x less media coverage

For instance, a week ago ICE released Columbia pro-Palestine activist Mohsen Mahdawi from detention after a judge ordered immediate release. Here’s a photo of him leaving

Or when Maine’s governor stood up to Trump’s anti-trans attacks, he at first suspended federal school lunch funding to the state. But a month later he backed down

The Trump administration has agreed not to freeze funds to Maine schools, a win for a state that was targeted by the president over its support of transgender rights.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/may/02/trump-maine-funding-freeze

This is not to say what they’re trying to do is not dangerous. This is to say they are weaker than they want us all to think

EDIT: also just now, Rümeysa Öztürk has been released from ICE detention after a judge ordered her immediate release earlier today. Here she is speaking to supporters