Florida scientists have reported the first known and fatal case of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza in a bottlenose dolphin.
Florida scientists have reported the first known and fatal case of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza in a bottlenose dolphin.
What matters more for public health risk is virility, and mortality tends to have a negative correlation with virility. In simpler terms, the more deadly it is the worse it is at spreading. It’s not a hard rule but is true more often than not, though I don’t know any details about avian flu. I assume if the CDC has determined the public health risk is low that it’s probably because it’s not particularly virile.
Do you mean transmissibility? I get what you mean, but I’ve never heard this word used this way. (Virulence is, more or less, the non-fatal version of mortality – how much damage the disease does – so not that.)
Be that as it may, once the disease is established in a new species it tends to get less harmful because of exactly what you’re talking about – but plenty of diseases through history have been in the short run both fast-spreading and deadly, especially right after they jump into a new population. Which is exactly what H5N1 is doing right now (on all three counts).
One of the reasons how deadly it is correlates to lower spreading is just how quickly deadly things kill.
If something like the original SARS had a 7 day infectious window before killing you things would have been very different.
I’d be interested to know how quickly it incapacitates humans, and how long you’re infectious for.
Edit: changed infectious window, accidentally used a incubation period by mistake.