She has had good turnout in events but don’t let that fucking fool you. Florida is mostly republican but not like 90% - you can find plenty of die hard liberals in the state.
I’m not saying it’s impossible but don’t hold your fucking breath.
We voted for Obama, twice. Florida is more purple than most believe.
I feel like this has changed a lot in the last 12 years. Florida was a battleground state but many conservatives flocked there after the state and Scott and DeSantis leaned into the whole “freedom” thing.
Boomer retirements started hitting hard in 2011. Florida is approaching 1/3 of the state being older than 60. They’re the most rapidly aging state in the country right now. Nearly every other state is losing old people to Florida on a daily basis.
When Obama was running, Florida was less than 1/4 of the state being 60 or older. Somewhere just under 4M residents of around 19M total. Now Florida has 22M people and of that 7M are 60 or older. The biggest growth changes are in the 0-19 age group that can’t/won’t vote. And the 60+ age group which is guaranteed to vote and skews conservative.
Yep. Live in Florida, family in Illinois. Conservative family members in Illinois love to point out I at least have more freedom than they do in Illinois.
Except they have recreational weed.
Yes, but these are also lifetime NRA members and you can’t use illegal drugs and get your FOID card. Have a few people who still have dealers and won’t go to dispensaries because of this.
You are repeating what people said in 2008.
The main beef with Florida is that the Democrats are just not well organized. As a campaign you can take a risk to invest in a purplish state if there’s a good team on the ground to help you (looking at Georgia for instance). If the organisation is not there, it’s just too risky.
Well, it’s kind of hard to believe because of the absolutely insane people you keep voting into office somehow.
As a diehard leftie who is unfortunately stuck in Florida for this election season, I will absolutely be voting for Kamala.
Kamala Kamala, Kamala, Kamala Kamala!
You can do more. You can get organized and help people get organized. As someone in a state that is perma-blue, I envy you and how much political impact you could make.
no, actually, i can’t, but thanks for trying to guilt trip me while acting like you know my life from a random internet comment.
since i’m not privileged enough to work or live in a “forever blue” state, i spend my days overworked and underpaid in a shitty job, and all my free time is eaten up taking shitty public transit for hours to and from that shitty job to a hovel of a room i can barely afford, where i have to then spend all my free time either looking for a better job or searching for affordable food options, which i can barely afford-- and even then i’m on the verge of both starvation and homelessness. after that, i’m lucky to get a few hours of sleep before i have to wake up and do it all over again.
so why don’t YOU do more than telling others less fortunate than you what to do, and mind your own damn business, ok?
how much do you envy me now?
Hey mate just gonna say I hope ya have some good luck and can get out of that shithole of a state. Florida is the worst type of state to be in since its economy is basically dead outside of tourism, hell even Idaho is doing better. So I hope ya have a good break and can make a good life for yourself.
If you volunteer to phone bank for them I’m sure the campaign would be happy to have you call voters in Florida and other swing states.
Worst case, Harris doing well forces Trump to spend more money there. I’m pretty sure his ego would take a big hit losing Florida, so I hope that effects it too and he overspends.
Mmmmm, lets see if this hurricane season changes that.
I can tell you Ian opened some eyes in my area. They’re very interested in the gulf water temp charts I’ve sent them now.
Yeah, I feel like people had this idea of rising sea levels looking like a bathtub filling.
No. This is the ocean. It’s going to look like Ian and Katrina, and sometimes it won’t give back.
50% of those republic voters found out that SCOTUS intends for them to make babies, fetch sandwiches, and shut up about their opinions.
The percentage of women who are cool with that is vanishingly small.
I wouldn’t be so sure.
I think you’ll depressingly find the number of women who are okay with it is surprisingly large - the GOP is basically embracing tradwife bullshit at this point and it seems to still get the majority of conservative women.
I agree. There are also more and more younger voters. Not saying they are all going to vote blue, but far more of them are.
The trad wife movement is divisive though. While I agree abortion isn’t a ticket winner on it’s own. It’s definitely moved a needle.
But what’s the voter turnout like? My brother lives in Florida and he proudly doesn’t vote.
Allegedly 77% in 2020 according to the FL government. I assume that’s among registered voters though, not all eligible.
https://dos.fl.gov/elections/data-statistics/elections-data/voter-turnout/
Yeah, I hope she doesn’t pull a Hillary and dump a bunch money into Florida and Texas instead of campaigning in actual swing states.
Note, even if she is unlikely to win the state, she could force them to campaign there a little and divest resources from places that are leaning blue. Nobody wants to take a “safe” state for granted after 2016.
Warning? How about a beacon of hope!
I get the idea of forcing Trump to waste resources in Florida, but really, the state has just been getting redder, and we don’t want to repeat the Hillary playbook.
Shore up support in the actual battleground states and the weaker “lean Dem” states (e.g., New Hampshire). 270 is all you need.
Did you see the article about Kamala Harris at The Villages? She got a good response. And no state is pure red nor pure blue. People change.
So, if he loses Florida will he have to move again? Somewhere in the Midwest, maybe? Texas (until enough Democrats move there to turn it blue)?
Moscow, probably
Yes he could lose Florida! Meatball Ron won his first term like 50.5% to 49.5%. Florida is a swing state, but Democrats are so dysfunctional statewide that they can’t organize a two person picnic.
I think that’s changing with the March For Our Lives kids coming of age.
The Harris campaign needs to take all this money they’re getting and invest it in states Biden got 45% or higher in 2020. They can get those states.
she’s got my vote
Hope so, but he is up +7 in the poll in the article.
It’s pretty wild to look at a +7 polling lead as a potential loss.
That’s like, Texas margins.
That’s really not that wild considering recent special elections Dems winning by a large margin when it was expected to be close, or even go the other way. Polls have been skewing more red than reality for quite a while now.
florida hates democrats but they love the policies. Imo, campaigning in florida should be about improving medicaid and medicare, reducing administrative costs etc.
I think Harris is the kind of wine mom that appeals there but democrats are a tough sell there.
I’m not American so I’m a little confused.
If “polls” is surveys from individuals, but the popular vote doesn’t matter, then what’s the point of these headlines anyway?
The winner of the popular vote within the state wins the state’s electoral votes. And Florida has a sizeable number of electrical votes.
its so weird that we have a difficult to understand electoral college system and yet one of the common arguments against ranked choice and party list voting is “its too hard to understand”
You don’t need to understand the EC to not spoil a FPTP ballot. You do need to understand a more complex process to not spoil a ranked choice ballot. That’s an argument I agree with in favor of score, STAR, or approval voting.
Of course the fact that it is mildly easier to understand than some alternatives does not excuse the fact that FPTP is awful for democracy.
Filing out an RCV ballot is no different than any other ranking system. Rank politicians in the order you’d like to vote for them. You may leave some or all blank.
That’s it. That’s the voter instruction. It’s not hard.
Just re-read my comment, I didn’t write anything about spoiling the ballot. I had typed it out but forgot deleting it. Sorry.
And giving two candidates the same rank? You are pretending that I wrote it is hard to do. I wrote that it is easier to spoil a ballot. People make mistakes.
Needing to rank candidates relative to each other is different from score voting where you just rank them.
A proper RCV ballot is just numbering candidates. On a computer screen, you might drag the names into order. Score voting isn’t just ranking them, you give each one a rating and then there’s about 3 different ways those scores can be used to determine a winner. RCV is simple, easy, and better than FPTP.
electrical votes
you mean eclectic votes?
FL has 30 EC votes so a statewide poll on their opinions is pretty important. Having said that, we don’t know for sure whether or not the poll is accurate or indicative of the opinions of the people who will actually vote.
Every state gets a number of Electoral College votes, that’s a fixed number. And each state is winner take all, the popular vote doesn’t matter because every vote past 51% of a state’s election numbers is wasted. California has the highest population of US citizens, it generally is very liberal and Democrats win pretty often. From a local perspective, the GOP haven’t had significant votes after they started using very racist rhetoric about Hispanics, and it’s hard to find anyone in CA who isn’t Hispanic, Or the spouse of a Hispanic person, or the in-law, or just friends with all those same people, so it really ruined their numbers out here. So with the majority of the country living in this state, everything after 51% of our total vote numbers is ignored, those millions of votes don’t counter the very few votes coming out of Indiana, or Ohio, or Wisconsin. Our effective votes are a percentile below 1, low pop states have effective votes well above 1.
But, it still always matters how many people are voting up to that 51% mark, if the survey projects Harris at or above those numbers she’ll get all their EC votes, so that’s why the survey matters, it’s also how the candidates decide how to spend money, Harris won’t put $5mil into Idaho, they aren’t even close to voting Democrat and it’s one of the most openly racist states in the US the chance they would change their mind is very slim, so, they won’t waste the money there. In the end, it always comes down to how much money they raised, and how well they spent it.
Isn’t it make more sense to spend more money where you’re behind?
Like, if you’re so sure you would win at Cali anyway then why even try anymore? On the other hand, you might want to spend extra time and money in places like Idaho to convince and convert more people to vote for you?
You want to spend money in states that could go either way. Swing states they’re called. There’s no real point in spending a ton of money in a place you can’t possibly win, either. Idaho would be a waste of money.
ah yes, swing states, that makes much more sense. thanks.
one more question if it’s not too much trouble. Is it mandatory for a president candidate to do a campaign in every single state? Or just the one they feel like it?
No, it’s not mandatory at all. That being said all states generally get a bare minimum (radio/tv ads) from local groups or pacs, but not generally the visits with crowds and all that. This was one of the issues that people had with Hillary’s campaign is that she only visited certain states, and completely ignored too many swing states that easily could have gone her way.
They don’t have to go anywhere if they don’t want to. It’s just about outreach and exposure.
Ask Hillary how ignoring “safe” states went for her though… She was too arrogant and underestimated Trump to all of our dismay…
Yes but you only spend the money where you are behind by a small enough amount that you might change the result. So if a state is polling 51% / 49% it’s a great state to spend in because it might change the electoral college votes.
I don’t think you understand how deeply racist the jello belt is. It’s a lost cause, mostly the democrats have to find the states close to tipping and organize in a hurry to make sure people actually show up and vote. The so called flip states are the battleground and there are states that have actually tried to change their election process to game the system so they ARE a flip state, so that the President who wins the state will feel more obligated to pay attention to the states needs, I know NV did this to some success Obama and Romney both spent a fair amount of money and time, with multiple stops in Reno and Vegas. It’s a strange thing, honestly I like the legislators who try and create very neck and neck districts to make politicians much more suseptible to their populaces opinions and therefore well being, but I also like living in a state where crazy doesn’t get to sit at the big kids table.
I put this out last week. I was looking at the maps from 2012, 16, and 20, and then looking at the 2020 census product.
Since its not my day job I can’t prioritize the analysis I want to do, but at least in the aggregate, the demographics are there for a blue victory. If I can get around to it, I’ll post my results when I have them.
if only the people not allowed to vote in Florida could vote
doubt the US would be red or blue if everyone here could vote
doubt the US would be red or blue if everyone here could vote
It’s a binary choice: every vote that isn’t blue is red. As a bonus, if they want to vote next time too, it’ll be blue.
if it were a binary choice then it would reflect in nature
does not
the two party system is an illusion and you can escape the matrix
Nobody likes republicans in south Florida except for the few weirdos and fucking losers.
The polls are STILL a bunch of shit
I’m happy the D line is going up, but the truth is, nobody knows what’s gonna happen.
It would be cool. It would absolutely turn the race on its head. Florida has 30 EC votes these days.
