Who’s winning POTUS? Will it be called on election night or drawn out? Congress? Etc
Kamala will probably win the popular vote, but Trump will take the presidency either through a technical, electoral college win, or a supreme court decision.
If Kamala somehow wins the popular vote and the electoral college, expect more violence. Probably large scale organized violence like we saw in 2021, but also increases in mass shootings and hate crimes. Unless she wins by a landslide (which is very unlikely) the supreme court will likely be involved and the process will drag on into at least January, if not longer. The court will probably find or invent a legal position that gives Trump the presidency anyway.
No matter who is president, Americans living in red states are fucked and any Palestinians living in Gaza are probably going to be killed.
A Trump presidency would be bad for every American and every person living where the US has influence. If the Republicans also take control of congress when they elect Trump, it’s probable that would be the end of the United States as we know it. Trump dismantled a lot of important parts of the administrative state that keeps the gears of government turning during his first presidency. A second round in office, with the other two branches in his pocket, would give him the chance to completely gut the institutions of the united states until the presidency controls everything at the national level.
We would probably see a national abortion ban, a ban on transgender care for adults and minors, the gutting of civil rights protections, most government services privatized, the destruction of countless government agencies and a purge of anyone who might object to any of that.
A Harris presidency would stall some of the efforts of the fascist takeover of the United States but not even a majority of those efforts. Republican controlled states would go into overdrive with their destabilizing agendas. Life will become a lot worse for anyone who isn’t a cishet white man living but has the misfortune of living in Maga country.
The good news is regardless of the outcome Trump won’t be involved in the 2028 presidential election, if we have one. He’s old enough and senile enough that he won’t be in any shape to govern by then so at least we get some new horrors to look forward to.
I’ve got a feeling we’ll see Bush v. Gore style recount shenanigans or worse. Trumpist “stop the steal” people have begun to infiltrate the election process, right?
Right, and it’s possible that what’s really happened outdistances what’s publicly known.
I still like to believe that our systems are resilient against such shenanigans, that Georgia Court just threw out some sketchy b******* that Trump affiliated election officials were trying to pull. Literally every Trump court case fell on its face last time around.
But I’m a lot more worried now. When the history of this election’s written, something we never thought of is going to turn out to be one of the most important events in history.
I’m not saying this will literally happen, but this is kind of what I think: some random election clerk in North Carolina is allowed to trigger a freeze on the counting of votes based on their ‘reasonable suspicion’, and after recounts and delays, it starts trending Kamala’s way, so they never complete the account. The Supreme Court invents some new legal doctrine that says we can’t allow the paralysis of one state to prevent the determination of a winner, the court throws it to the House of Representatives, the house holds the vote open for 16 hours until Trump wins, with God knows what violence and rallies and stuff happening outside.
57% chance of Trump. If I thought the odds were otherwise, I would bet otherwise: https://www.electionbettingodds.com/President2024_week.html
If Trump wins then all the people who are not wealthy white males will get exactly what they deserve.
Violence.
I mean, we’re already a capitol storming and a few assassination attempts in. You need to be a bit more specific.
It’s gonna be a shitshow.
It’s a toss up and I have no special crystal ball, but if I had to do arbitrage on it I think the risk of a 2000-style tie is even higher than projected (already 10% per Nate Silver), just based on the vibes I’m hearing.
Trump seems to always exceed expectations, so I fear he will almost certainly win unless a health condition forces him out of the race.
However, I have consistently under estimated Harris, so maybe I’ll be wrong yet again and she will be the one to overperform…
Trump outperformed polling in both of the last elections, and the polls are much closer now, so if he even just outperforms the same amount as before he wins.
I think the polls have tried to correct for this, and I also believe Kamala has huge and sophisticated ground game operation aimed at turnout while Trump’s team seems completely disorganized. So I wonder if that advantage in operational sophistication counts for anything.
Before all ballots are counted, Trump declares himself a winner and starts sounding the alarm about illegitimate counts. Trump then contests battleground states and has enough alternate electors that the final score gets escalated to the Supreme Court, who grants Trump the win while they “figure it all out”. They declare widespread “issues” with the election and localized protests ensue. Trump declares martial law and tells the police to “be tough”. Several injuries and deaths set more riots and protests. Trump orders the national guard to help with crowd control. An overzealous soldier opens with live fire on the crowd, killing several due to stampedes and general chaos.
Trump blames chaos on Democrats and claims illegal immigrants were behind the violence, begins his mass deportation exercise. Numerous non immigrants are rounded up “as sympathizers” and taken to holding facilities in Texas and several other border states where they are held indefinitely without trial.
Trump creates a tip line to report “illegal aliens” and people start reporting their neighbours and anyone else they find “suspicious”. People are always keeping their eyes out and keeping their lives to themselves out of fear they may be reported.
Trump and his regime create a committee to oversee and overhaul elections “due to all that bad corruption” and suggests a moratorium on elections until “they figure it out”.
They don’t ever figure it out.
Very plausible. If you need any recipes for when the California vegetables stops coming HMU, I’ve made a project out of it.
So basically “how to speedrun dictatorship”
The current betting odds aggregations have trump at 58%, harris at 41%
https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
Maybe I’m crazy, but I feel like gamblers have a heavy right lean.
Well that’s disheartening. Can’t believe that many people prefer a racist con man to a competent woman.
A 34 time convicted felon child rapist pussy grabber racist con man
You could keep adding to that.
People are big mad and think electing a brain-damaged version of Mussolini makes some kind of point.
Betting markets don’t really have any predictive value. It’s all vibes.
I wouldn’t rely on them for predictions, but I do think they can be a reasonable proxy for people’s beliefs and/or assumptions. And I would say they at least loosely track the truth…
NBA betting is not perfectly predictive, but there’s a reason the Celtics are at the top and the Pistons are at the bottom.
Wikipedia lists Real Clear Politics as having become more conservative and right leaning in recent years. Their polls may not be as accurate.
That’s not a poll. It’s an aggregate / average of betting markets.
We will either get Fascism or Fascism Lite™
The 1% will benefit.
2016 2: electric boogaloo. Harris loses PA and MI due to campaigning on continued genocide, leaving her with a popular vote victory but electoral college loss.
That’s what I’d bet on if I were a betting man.
My prediction is that every other country will watch with a mix of concern and popcorn
Canadian here. Mostly concern. Anybody here that thinks it’s a fun show hasn’t thought very far ahead.
As a Brazilian, this too. Also, some PTSD from remembering recent Brazilian elections (sometimes USA and Brazil are so similar that they seem like brothers separated at birth, your Trump was our Bolsonaro, your Biden is our Lula, I wouldn’t be surprised if your Harris is our Dilma without the “stockpiling of wind” thing).
As a non-American, this. And I honestly don’t understand why so many people in our neck of the woods aren’t more concerned about this. You guys are such a heavy hitter from a socio-economical standpoint, that anything which goes down in your country will inevitably affect everyone else.
I have a theory as to why people in my country discuss US politics more than our own. People want to talk about something more ‘important’ than the latest reality talent show, but don’t want to risk talking about local politics. US politics is square in the middle, splashed across our feeds constantly.
I just can’t wait until elections continue their downward spiral, and presidential candidates need to sing country songs to Snoop Dog so they don’t get voted off the island.
