Historically, voters from smaller and more rural counties tend to cast their ballots on Election Day, per an analysis of the 2020 election from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab.
If that trend holds, it could create the appearance that Trump and Republicans are in the lead — the so-called “red mirage.”
However, as absentee and mail-in ballots, typically originating from denser, more urban precincts that lean Democratic, are tabulated, the outcome in certain states could change — leading to a “blue shift” on the electoral map.
NM Political Report after the end of early voting Saturday reported these numbers: Democrat: 307,311 (46.29%) Decline to State: 104,904 (15.8%) Libertarian: 5,301 (0.8%) Other: 2,982 (0.45%) Republican: 243,376 (36.66%) Total: 663,874 (556,026 in-person, 107,848 absentee)
So is that a Blue Mirage, before a Blue Tsunami? Hard to say.
This is from New Mexico? New Mexico is solid blue. If this shows a general trend, great. But NM won’t really affect the outcome much.
It’s data. Have you any to share?