Summary
A massive Ukrainian drone strike targeted Russian oil refineries and infrastructure, including Moscow’s largest refinery, which supplies 50% of the city’s fuel.
The attack also hit the Druzhba pipeline control station, halting Russian oil exports to Hungary. With over 337 drones striking multiple regions, the operation exploited gaps in Russia’s air defenses.
Hungary, heavily reliant on Russian energy, called the pipeline attack a threat to its sovereignty.
Analysts suggest continued strikes could pressure Russia’s economy and energy dominance, potentially influencing ceasefire negotiations.
It will not necessarily continue receiving the same level of support. But it will receive support from all EU countries neighbouring the Russia, because that is a lot cheaper than what happens if the Russia gets a result that Putin can advertise as a Russian victory. Because then we are next.
These countries will not end their support anyway. With only our help, the Russia will increase its territorial gains to possibly almost two percent of Ukraine’s total territory per year, but those gains will still be far from enough for the Russia to win before its economy goes down. The war will last longer that way, and more Ukrainians will die, but of course Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Sweden don’t want to have a war in their own countries. And the Danes are just awesome for reasons I cannot completely understand. We are only a fraction of the size of the whole EU, but we are not in a position to stop supporting Ukraine, and we are enough to slow the Russia enough to keep from winning.
Unfortunately I do not think those European countries can slow down Russia enough. Ukraine has troubles hiring more soldiers. It’s not looking good.
The Russia has those same problems as well, not only Ukraine. And Ukraine has the good thing that if it starts really seriously losing ground because of lack of soldiers, they will get more soldiers. People are scared shitless of what would happen if the Russia took over their homes. Ukraine’s problem with the number of soldiers is a self-correcting one.
Also, the Russia needs to pay an increasing amount of money to hire soldiers. They get 200 000 Rubles per month for the service, while in the rural areas 8 000 Rubles per month is a realistic salary for a factory worker. It’s a big difference, but anything smaller would not get people to risk their lives. And now that everything is getting more expensive with inflation around 20 %, you can buy all the time less and less bread for those 200 000 Rubles per month. And it’s not really Rubles that they are after, but bread and heating. When prices of bread and heating rise, then also the soldiers’ requirements for the salary level rise the same amount. There are reports of Russian troops’ numbers dwindling.
It is true that Ukraine does have troubles recruiting soldiers, but it is a problem only if those troubles are bigger than how the enemy is faring regarding the same. If the Russia has more troubles recruiting soldiers than Ukraine does, then it’s a net positive for Ukraine in the end.
Russia does not have more troubles hiring soldiers than Ukraine.
Not necessarily. But it does habe about the same amount if trouble. Remember that the Russia’s manpower consumption is extremely high, so they need to recruit a lot more than Ukraine in order to.keep their army from shrinking in manpower.
No, while Russia may have lost more soldiers than Ukraine overall, Russia has lost a lot less soldiers per capita than Ukraine.
~300000 vs. ~70000. 140 million vs 40 million.
=
0,0021 deaths per inhabitant vs 0,0018 deaths per inhabitant.
In military losses including wounded the Russia’s situation is better in comparison to population, if.you look at raw numbers: about twice as many losses, but 3½ times the population. But it is always much easier for the defender to recruit soldiers than it is for the aggressor, so you’d need to add a coefficient for that. All in all, these numbers are in the same ballpark. They should not be able to make a huge difference, because both are decreasing at roughly comparable rates.
And I repeat: because of the Russia’s exceptionally cruel behaviour in the temporarily occupied regions, the Ukrainians are likely to find much more manpower if manpower shortage becomes acute enough for the Russia to start advancing.
I don’t think either side is going to win or lose the war because of manpower shortages.
No, Ukrainians are not more likely to join the war efforts, it has been pretty clearly demonstrated by the difficulties of the Ukrainian army to hire more soldiers.
As Russia keeps advancing, it will further damage the moral of the Ukrainians. Ukraine can not win a war of attrition against Russia.
What do you mean with this “As Russia keeps advancing”? It has not advanced since February 2022. The conversation is a bit difficult when the foundations of the conversation are so uneven. You talk about “Russia advancing”, and to my knowledge, that has not happened. Could you please elaborate?