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Cake day: June 21st, 2023

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  • Real politik.

    Saudi Arabia is a useful ally to have in the region, a fellow enemy of Russian ally Iran, a good customer for the defense industry, and an alliance makes the US less reliant on Israel. That’s a win-win.

    Elements in the Saudi government may have helped orchestrate 9/11, but after 2003 attacks in Saudi Arabia they drastically and often violently curtailed the influence of the Wahhabi establishment. The aristocracy clamped down on the power of the clergy. They also offered significant and valuable intelligence cooperation with the US

    So if elements in the Saudi government did help orchestrate 9/11, it’s easier to sweap it under the rug. There are more important issues to worry about.

    Twenty years ago? Other decisions should have been made and not made.

    Now? The world and the regime in Saudi Arabia has changed.














  • You don’t need to poll everyone to get relatively accurate polling results.

    I have a related degree, it is possible with the necessary caveats, margins of error and confidence intervals. Statistics is a wonderful thing.

    This being said, I actually read the full 77 page document they linked to, and if I’m not mistaken the 55% comes from a 2021 telephone poll. Obviously phone only polls are likely to be biased, even if you correct for demographic factors like age.

    Then again, inflation is a problem.


  • I have a related degree.

    The study was conducted for CNN via web and telephone on the SSRS Opinion Panel, a nationally representative panel of U.S. adults ages 18 or older recruited using probability-based sampling techniques.

    BUT…

    In a January 2021 poll taken just before Trump left office and days after the January 6 attack on the US Capitol, 55% considered his time as president a failure.

    Relevant bit:

    Unless otherwise noted, results beginning with the August 3-6, 2017 survey and ending with the April 21-26, 2021 survey are from polls conducted by SSRS via telephone only

    TLDR: doubt those polls are representative.



  • nor are concrete plans to phase it out mentioned.

    Once again, the article you cited, with the bit you cut out included and in bold:

    Israel has also historically been permitted to use a portion of its FMF aid to buy equipment from Israeli defense firms—a benefit not granted to other recipients of U.S. military aid—but this domestic procurement is to be phased out in the next few years.

    And the article linked to in the article you cited:

    According to a congressional report, the “phasing out [of] Off-Shore Procurement (OSP) is to decrease slowly until FY2024, and then phase out more dramatically over the MOU’s last five years, ending entirely in FY2028.” As a consequence, the report notes “some Israeli defense contractors are merging with U.S. companies or opening U.S. subsidiaries”—in other words, transferring their personnel and capacities from Israel to the U.S.

    The only thing you’ve proved is your inability or unwillingness to read.

    Given previous interactions, I suspect it’s the former.

    You are factually wrong and I corrected you just accept it and move on.

    I’m sure you believe that. Good for you.