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Cake day: August 11th, 2023

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  • Nuclear war outcome

    All mega cities flattened. Hundreds of thousands of people next to nuke hits are blind and are fated to die as there is nobody to help them. Fires and destruction everywhere.

    Toxic cloud rain the size of large city like New-York near insta-killing everything on its path as it moves with the wind. Hundreds if not thousands (one per each nuke) of toxic rain clouds at the same time and there is nowhere to hide from them. The only solution is to avoid them, but it is impossible due to destruction, debris, and loss of transportation due to EMP from nearby nuke. Mountains will not be safe largely due to toxic rains.

    Loss of almost all food storage and drinking water to destruction and toxic contamination.

    Even physically intact buildings and their contents may be unsafe after toxic cloud rains. People would not know of what is safe, since most don’t have means to measure radiation levels.

    Inability to grow food for many years due to contamination.

    Nuclear winter (there are some doubts on this topic as well as contamination).

    Lack of food and drinking water. Deaths from starvation and dehydration. Deaths from taking contaminated water and food coming faster and more terrifying than from starvation.

    Later on deaths from lower doses of contamination.

    Survivors will envy the dead and follow the dead.

    Only people in bunkers with years in supplies will have a chance.






  • At this point it is more than just territorial control.

    It is survival of the country as a whole. At higher level it is survival of the system on both sides.

    The military operation has highlighted multiple issues in Russian system. While issues are significant, they are not critical and system currently manages to pretend like issues don’t exist.

    The western system side is also experiencing problems. The problems are conceptually different, but the system is also in pretend mode like nothing is happening.

    Side observer can’t really guess which system is going to crash first, if crash is coming. It is also possible that none will crash, and world will split into two or more centers of economic gravity.

    I am not even looking at role China is playing in all of this. I can just say, that China gets sometimes inaccurate coverage in Western MSM, which results in faulty expectations.


  • That is a natural reaction of person that tracks only western MSM and doesn’t pay attention to gradual rise in western politician attitudes.

    Russian nuclear doctrine change reflects changed attitude in western propaganda.

    You must not be aware of the following developments. Poland is already primed to fight. Baltic states openly talk about preemptive strike on Russia. Western long range weapons are pretty much cleared to strike “old” Russian territory. Country on southern side of Russia is set to become 2nd Ukraine. NATO general claims that Russia will not use nukes under any circumstances and thus justifies any level of involvement.

    In this environment expansion of nuclear deterrence is pretty much the only option from Russian point of view.

    Please note that inside Russia there are calls to strike from Kiev to London due to crossing of previously announced red lines. Someone was right here. Putin is moderate if not outright inactive.

    The above creates potentially unstable environment inside Russia and may give Russian government additional motivation to use nukes at location of regional importance.

    There are some reasons for western side to provoke Russia, which nobody here wants to discuss or acknowledge.

    It shall come as no surprise that NATO has larger military than Russia. Russia never made it a secret that the only way to balance out conventional strength difference is with nukes.

    The calculation on Russian side is that they will destroy large amount of opposing side military and equipment. It should be enough to stop any meaningful ground action.

    So, reality is very close to getting out of control.

    All it takes is a small provocation on the border side that looks like invasion even if it is just a large scale disruption in communication on the border line and incursion of some military equipment.

    The later happened already on Belorussian border in last 12 months. So the scenario was tested in part by Poland.


  • Russia tries to keep Poland, Baltic states and other unfriendly bordering nations from getting involved in any military action against Russia by making it clear that response will be nuclear.

    The desire to involve other nations against Russia goes up with Ukraine slowly loosing war against Russia. Tactical encirclement of 72nd Ukrainian battalion in Ugledar is the most recent example of losses on Ukrainian side.

    Change to Nuclear weapons doctrine tries to stop opening of 2nd war front against Russia. The most likely location would be border between Belorussia and Poland.




  • Sweet story that omits more than tells

    How did the pilot die during the missile strike?

    It is a sweet story that forgets to mention that this missile strike shut off electricity in multiple regions despite report of 80% interception rate.

    On that day the were multiple leaks of fireballs on the ground. Odessa, for starters.

    Ukraine moved significant amounts of anti-air to protect its Kursk invasion of Russia. The result was a successful missile attack against military assets in Ukraine. One of the losses was F-16 with the pilot. How did he die? Was it long range anti-air hit at an impossible distance even for long range missiles? Or was it a hit on the ground? How far away from front lines?

    Is it that acknowledging hit on the ground is revealing a successful hit of military airfield used to arm F-16? What about all those sweet intercept numbers?

    The way article is written makes reader to think that F-16 was in the air, when it was hit. It is all about the way story was written. However, there’s no actual statement of how or were it was hit.

    Russian unofficial telegram channels reported that F-16 was hit on the ground. F-16 is not stationed in Ukraine, but it gets armed in Ukraine to avoid accusation of direct NATO involvement. So, Russians managed to hit a highly missile protected the furthest away airfield in a time window of short F-16 armament.

    Suddenly the story has a completely different meaning. That’s why it is a sweet story, that omitted more, than told us.

    —-

    Update: today’s telegram says F-16 was shutdown by friendly anti-air fire. Was it western supplied weapons that don’t have friendlies identification?




  • I own old Chromebook.

    Chromebook software updates are not forever.

    It is my understanding that some Chromebooks might be locked in such a way that installation of Linux might NOT be an option or the might be a high chance of bricking the device.

    At least that was the case with my Chromebook.

    So, once OS updates are unavailable, the machine might become a weak link from security standpoint or stop running some software.

    Chromebook is still a great option, but be careful with very old ones.