geikei [none/use name]

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Joined 4 years ago
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Cake day: December 23rd, 2020

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  • Even if China’s demographic issues are as big as dumbass clickbait YT vids and reddit comments make it out to be that would still put China in the demographic position of SK a couple of decades ago. S. Korea quintupled industrial production between 1992-2010 and their productivity rose x6 while it’s factory workforce dropped 25%. It’s all about education, tech, and productivity. More important than the aggregate Chinese population is the technically proficient,college educated, Chinese population. That has grown 20-fold, or by 2,000%, in the past 40 years and will continue to grow due to the hundreds of millions of untapped rural population despite the decline in population.

    So point is, economy is still growing. The plan has always been to create self-sustaining growth in exports to the Global South with BRI infrastructure + productivity leap at home. Both of those aspects show great success. Exports and imports to the GS are expanding and the entire SEA is brought in the sphere of Chinese digital economy. The “greater China” economy includes another billion people in SE and Central Asia.China is getting 2x to 8x productivity leaps with AI/5G apps in industry/mining/logistics.

    And all that is assuming China cant and will not tackle demographic issues in any other manners


  • Export decrese is in line with almost every other east asian country and its very much so a “western economies go into recession and import less” problem. Groth slowing to ~5% is in line with what everyone is expected and China doesnt sweat too much about it. Its pretty solid especially since its higher quality. Deflation is only a problem if it persists for a long time and if it actualy spans in various types of commodities. If you exclude energy and housing everything else shows small inflation in China still and the real estate sector is going through tough but needed restructuring and regulation periods since last year. Deflation introduced from that part of the economy is more or less a by product of them deleveraging the sector and bursting some bubbles