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The 22,600 figure is most likely a severe underestimate of the people murdered by occupation forces in Gaza (and elsewhere, because they’ve been murdering people in the West Bank and Lebanon as well). I shared this in another comment but The Lancet published this which determined there was no evidence that the Gaza Ministry of Health is inflating these statistics, if anything they are being under reported.

As for how many are “actual civilians” the way that is being reported currently heavily favors the narrative of the occupation because the assumption is simply that all males over the age of 13 are combatants, and even using this absurd framing around 61% of those killed are women and children. The occupation forces have proportionately killed more journalists and UN aid workers than in any other conflict in recent history.

History will judge Israel and its supporters harshly.

Israeli soldiers have repeatedly been found using human shields and forcing civilians to risk their lives performing military tasks.

The Lancet is generally regarded as one of the most reputable and trustworthy medical journals. An assessment of the figures from the Gaza Ministry of Health published in the Lancet found that there was no evidence of inflated mortality statistics, and even went beyond that to say that it is considerably more likely that the Gaza Ministry of Health is under reporting the casualties providing the most conservative figures.

If MoH mortality figures were substantially inflated, the MoH mortality rates would be expected to be higher than the UNRWA mortality rates. Instead, the MoH mortality rates are lower than the rates reported for UNRWA staff (5·3 deaths per 1000 vs 7·8 deaths per 1000, as of Nov 10, 2023). Hypothetically, if MoH mortality data were inflated from, for example, an underlying value of 2–4 deaths per 1000, it would imply that UNRWA staff mortality risk is 2·0–3·9 times higher than that of the public. This scenario is unlikely as many UNRWA staff deaths occurred at home or in areas with high civilian populations, such as in schools or shelters.

Mortality reporting is difficult to conduct in ongoing conflicts. Initial news reports might be imprecise, and subsequent verified reports might undercount deaths that are not recorded by hospitals or morgues, such as persons buried under rubble (appendix pp 1–2). However, difficulties obtaining accurate mortality figures should not be interpreted as intentionally misreported data.

Although valid mortality counts are important, the situation in Gaza is severe, with high levels of civilian harm and extremely restricted access to aid. Efforts to dispute mortality reporting should not distract from the humanitarian imperative to save civilian lives by ensuring appropriate medical supplies, food, water, and fuel are provided immediately.

Here’s a link to the source of this quote.

There are a lot of terrible people doing terrible things to humanity and the planet, and I’ll be damned if I let those fucking ghouls outlive me.

Ah yes, the critical necessary work of waiting to vote every four years, sitting on your ass hoping fascism will sort itself out, and expecting the institutions you take for granted to protect you. Extremely brave and level headed, not cowardly or delusional in the least. /s

The weird insinuation that I am in any way related to or supportive of Russia is a nice touch, because nothing says “moving forward with progress” like demonizing an entire population, almost all of whom have as little control over their government as you do yours. I’m sure those neofascists are shaking in their boots.

His supporters are the cops. His followers are already in office, in courts, in law enforcement, and in the military at every level of each. They are already actively hurting people, indoctrinating children, destroying the environment, criminalizing minorities, brutalizing and killing dissidents, and both passing and enforcing laws to aid them in doing all of the aforementioned.

This is not a mindless panic. Women are having their rights repealed, queer folks are facing increasing violence and threats of imprisonment, and just about every visible minority is facing higher incidence of hate crimes and discrimination. The majority of americans are living paycheck to paycheck, and people can’t afford average rent on average income (let alone minimum wage) in any city in the country. People are fucking starving and dying on the street, and the number one cause of bankruptcy is medical debt which is something that shouldn’t even exist.

The refusal to reconcile reality with this fantasy of a powerful and healthy country is part of what has enabled fascists to ascend once more, and what keeps burying the bar for democrats further underground.

Every time Trump gets put on TV because people like yourself are convinced that this time will finally be his undoing, his base and support grows. The amount of free publicity this fuck has gotten from people that are ostensibly his opponents is staggering. If you keep assuming that laws, ethics, morals, and rules are going to be followed by fascists, you’re in for a rude awakening.

edit: a couple words

Right but what makes you think that’ll stop them from doing it anyway? Bending and breaking rules is their bread and butter, this is no different.

Even if he’s barred, I don’t imagine anyone winning the GOP primary without a pledge to pardon him once elected. Beyond that, it seems that people really do not want to consider the very real possibility of a coup or jail break. Every time these fucks escalate there’s a chorus of wilfully ignorant liberals bleating about “who could have seen this coming???” and every time there have been people like me begging them to take the threat seriously and to stop imagining there will be some moment when they finally see reason and accept defeat. The democratic strategy for opposing fascism seems to be just never losing another election, and somehow think throwing their most vulnerable constituents under the bus and catering to republicans and the mythical undecided voter is going to grow their lead enough to make that happen.

I’m saying all this not to frighten people but to try to wake them up to the reality of the threat we face, because right now we’re sleepwalking into fascists seizing power.

To be clear, my issue was never about whether or not Trump should be put on trial, but rather the terrible idea of televising it and turning it into an opportunity for him to promote himself. I do think he should face consequences for his actions, but people keep putting this sack of shit on TV, doing his publicity for him, and then being shocked when it turns out in his favor every single time. No matter the verdict, because of how much of an event this will be, he will most likely come out the other end with greater and stronger support.

He will probably be found guilty, but what I am trying to illustrate is that he could not ask for a better stage to sell himself as the embattled, targeted, brave leader in the war against the deep state. Think of how often he speaks to his base about the nebulous “they” that are against him, “they” want to silence him, “they” want to put him in jail because he’s telling it like it is and threatening the woke agenda or whatever the fuck. People here are convinced this will be the ultimate comeuppance, but his supporters are going to see their saint being persecuted by his adversaries.

So many in here are treating this like a victory lap, but it’s a fucking campaign ad. If he’s somehow barred from running, you know who I think will win the republican nomination? Whoever pledges to pardon him as soon as they enter office.

It’s not pessimism. Fascists are already banning books, criminalizing trans people, reversing environmental protections, outlawing abortion and criminalizing those that seek them, rewriting school curricula with historical revisionism and fascist propaganda to suit their needs, perpetrating hate crimes, discriminating against minorities and political opponents, and their media is cranking out fuel for stochastic terrorism day after day. Hell, on the primary debate stage the other day, the candidates were talking about how they would each approach executing people at the border. Of course there was a layer of euphemism, it was about “lethal force in border security”, but a whole hell of a lot of the people on the receiving end of that are migrants and refugees fleeing the conditions american foreign and economic policy has subjected them to.

I have clearly touched a nerve here because there are a lot of upset people downvoting what I’m saying, but I am not being a cynic or a defeatist, I am begging people to reckon with the reality of what is already happening. As I’ve said repeatedly, this trial is literally about how he incited his supporters to attempt overthrowing an election, and people are in here acting as if all that matters is how this might sway voters.

Fascists do not care about democracy, why do you think the GOP spends as much time as it does gerrymandering and messing with voter eligibility, closing polling stations, and purging rolls? They are not going to be voted away, and they are not going to give a fuck about whatever ethics people are just hoping they will abide by. Rules are seen as an obstacle to be overcome, not a boundary which cannot be crossed.

I said this in another reply but I’m going to repeat it here: ask yourself how much of his base are cops and soldiers, and then think about who it is that you’re expecting to step in when his base takes another swing.

As I replied to another person above, if you think my message was about votes and elections then you’ve misunderstood. This is quite literally a trial about an attempted overthrow of an election, their disdain for democracy is clear as day. The extent of that disdain, and what his base might be willing to do to get him in power regardless is exactly what I am trying to get people not to underestimate. Also, it might be a sobering thought to consider how many cops and soldiers are part of his base.

edit: a couple words I missed

If you read what I wrote and thought I was worried about how this would affect votes then you’ve missed the point completely. They do not care about votes or elections, their figurehead is literally on trial for trying to overturn the last one.

Begging people to understand the severity of the threat Trump and his followers pose is a “loser defeatist attitude”? If you genuinely think that anyone still supporting him is going to come out of watching this man on TV thinking less of him, or seeing it as a serious matter instead of some kind of political assassination of their dear leader, then you’ve not been paying attention for years.

How many times have liberals been convinced “surely, this will be the end of him!” only for it to galvanize his base and further cement him as their figurehead? Stop thinking that his base has an even remotely similar worldview to yourself, you could show them all the evidence in the world of his wrongdoing and they will still find a way to pretend it’s not true. This is what I am trying to get people to understand, if you think fascists play by the rules you are sorely mistaken.

I’m just gonna ask you to take a moment and think about the gulf of disparity between these two figures in real terms. One ran a rather successful conspiracy grift show and the other is the former president, on trial for inciting others to attempt overthrowing an election. The fact that you’re even comparing the two as if people will drop Trump as readily as they did Jones, when he is still the front runner for candidacy by an enormous margin while gearing up to go on trial for treason is exactly the kind of underestimation I’m talking about.

This is going to backfire in a big way. Whole lot of people seem to think this will be justice porn or somehow convince his base of his criminality but it is going to do no such thing. According to one poll, the majority (77%) of likely GOP primary voters are already convinced the trial is “politically motivated”, with only 8% more concerned about him attempting to overturn an election. You can take a look at some polling here, there are other even more troublesome results as well: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-poll-indictments-2023-08-20/

No matter how awful, contradictory, and ridiculous he will be in that court room, this is likely going to be a massive boon for Trump, and his followers are going to see it as the realization of their own fears of persecution. This man is an ascendant fascist leader, not the sad sack finally facing consequences that liberals so desperately want him to be, and the effect this will have on mobilizing his base to continue to escalate will be immense. These people do not give a single fuck about “”“law and order”“” no matter how much they pretend they do, stop assuming they will just accept things when he is found guilty. They won’t.

I’m just trying to help people realize how dangerous and precarious this whole situation is. People were laughing and making jokes when he first announced his candidacy, and kept on doing it right up to the point that he won the election. Don’t make the same mistake again, because while yall are cracking jokes, him and his ghouls are hurting people. They are passing discriminatory laws, they are in the supreme court setting dangerous precedents and overturning inconvenient ones, and they are patrolling the streets looking for people to brutalize and throw in jail. They are committing hate crimes and becoming increasingly radicalized and mobilized.

Stop pretending this is entertainment or business as usual, it’s not. I’m begging you to understand that the fascists are already here, and the longer they’re underestimated the better their chances of seizing control.