As much as there is plenty of new people joining the threadiverse, the real wave starts today, with thousands of subreddits going dark.

Existing Lemmy/Kbin instances get hammered with new user registrations and deploy different coping strategies. Some plead, some close registrations. New instances spring up.

Soon, mainstream media will discover Lemmy exists. They will probably miss Kbin entirely, and most will also be very confused about the federated nature of Lemmy. Some might be able to remember Fediverse exists.

When Kbin finally shows up on their radar, they will find it difficult to explain how it fits into the narrative they already spun. My money is on someone calling it a “fork” of Lemmy. 🤣

Eventually, as more instances start turning off registrations, and as some buckle under the load temporarily, the narrative becomes “this is why Lemmy will fail.” Threadiverse will get treated like a VC-funded walled garden. Media will be flabberghasted at how “poorly” Lemmy and Kbin were able to “capture” the people wanting to migrate off of Reddit. They will complain endlessly about how hard it is to choose an instance, “confusing interface”, and ask “thoughtful” questions on “how will they monetize”.

Eventually, the wave subsides. Maybe Reddit reverses their silly ideas, maybe people get tired. There is a drop in active user accounts on the Threadiverse, compared to the peak of the wave, which is then taken as “proof positive” that Lemmy and Kbin could never “succeed”.

What they will ignore, of course, is that by then Threadiverse is several times bigger and more active than before all the Reddit insanity. Communities stay active, people stay active, and slowly Threadiverse grows, as (just like the broader Fediverse) it is not a VC-funded startup that needs a hokey-stick growth.

It’s a long-term project of making community-run platforms work. And that takes time, and effort, and love.

  • Rob@lemmy.worldEnglish
    0·
    2 years ago

    I don’t think Reddit will see a huge drop in users in the short term. But hopefully this whole kerfuffle will give a big enough boost to Lemmy to kickstart its network effect.

    Engagement is the most important thing to be striving for right now!

    • Cora@lemmy.worldEnglish
      0·
      2 years ago

      I was watching the counter yesterday as various subreddits went dark, and I started watching when it hit 1200, and woke up this morning with it being over 6000.

      There was an initial hurdle to understanding how instances work together / how to search between them, but now that I have that figured out, it’s a lot easier. Most of the communities that I actively interacted with already have similar communities here on Lemmy. r/FountainPens was a big one for me.

      • AnarchistArtificer@slrpnk.netEnglish
        1·
        2 years ago

        I saw your comment and went “ooh, does that mean that there’s a fountain pen community over here”, and I clicked on your profile excitedly, but I can only see posts/comments that you’ve made within the communities I’ve already joined.

        How did you (re)discover the communities that you frequented? Did you just search for them one by one? I enjoyed how organic finding new communities on Reddit often felt and I’m hoping I’m just missing that now because I don’t understand Lemmy yet.

        • Mindless_Enigma@beehaw.orgEnglish
          2·
          2 years ago

          I can see comments and posts on their profile from communities I’m not in. Not quite sure why that isn’t the case for you. Maybe a weird quirk of how the different instances are federated. Looks like they’re talking about !fountainpens@sopuli.xyz. As for finding communities, I don’t know what the UI is like outside of Beehaw, but when I go to the community list I can chose to search all instances to find communities all over.

          • Someology@fedia.io
            2·
            2 years ago

            I’ve noticed that some communities will just not show up when I search hereon fedia.io. !fountainpens@sopuli.xyz is one of them. No matter how I search for it, I can’t seem to find it here. Other communities from Lemmy seem to be no problem, so it’s odd.

  • HawkXero@lemmy.oneEnglish
    0·
    2 years ago

    I’m new to all of this, can you explain the difference between Lemmy and Kbin? And why would Kbin get missed over initially?

    • rysiek@szmer.infoOPEnglish
      1·
      2 years ago

      These are just two different software projects that a Threadiverse instance can use. They federate with one another, so it doesn’t matter all that much if you have an account on a Kbin instance, or a Lemmy instance. The differences are in the interface, some functionality, and the tech stack used (Lemmy is written in Rust; Kbin in PHP).

      There are 100+ instances of Lemmy, and ~10 instances of Kbin. Kbin is a much younger project (hence it might get missed), and it’s main instance, kbin.social seems to be experiencing more issues with the wave of new registrations. If you want to try Kbin, https://fedia.io/ might be a good instance to check out.

      • FallGuy217@lemmy.oneEnglish
        1·
        2 years ago

        Sorry if this is a dumb question, but is the fediverse and the threadiverse the same thing different names?

        I feel like I’m finally wrapping my head around a lot of this stuff, but I’m still learning all the terms.

        • Melmi@lemmy.blahaj.zoneEnglish
          1·
          2 years ago

          The Fediverse is everything that is connected via ActivityPub. You have Lemmy and Kbin, but you also have Mastodon serving as a Twitter analogue, PeerTube as a YouTube analogue, Pixelfed as an Instagram analogue, etcetera, all of which are part of the Fediverse umbrella.

          The Threadiverse is just the “forum” side of the Fediverse, the Reddit-alikes. At this point that means just Lemmy and Kbin, but there’s no reason there couldn’t be more alternatives in the future.

  • LetterboxPancake@sh.itjust.worksEnglish
    0·
    2 years ago

    I don’t think Reddit will lose enough users to seriously consider backing down. But I expect the quality to degrade further, and I think this might start the slow descend of Reddit. I’m not sure if Lemmy, Kbin or Tiles will be the successors. I like Lemmy so far, but it was a journey.

    • WhiskyTangoFoxtrot@lemmy.worldEnglish
      0·
      2 years ago

      I’m not sure if Lemmy, Kbin or Tiles will be the successors.

      That’s kind of a moot point, since as long as they can federate with each other it doesn’t matter what software an individual instance runs.

        • Liempong_pagong@beehaw.orgEnglish
          0·
          2 years ago

          It’s okay to not be a successor. In fact, I know one of those you mentioned actively rejects being treated as a Reddit alternative.

          The important thing is they exist and have a sizeable footprint where people could choose to spend their online presence and contribute. This makes Reddit less of a monopoly and erodes its hold on users.

          I do not want another Reddit. Seeing how bad it became. I want a community with its own flavor that is distinct from Reddit. That way, however, I might feel or whatever my mood is for that time of day. I could choose where and what culture to interact with. These instances and new forum give me the power of choice that Reddit has tried so hard to withhold from us.

          • smithy46@lemmy.worldEnglish
            0·
            2 years ago

            Hear hear. As time went on Reddit started to lose the magic it had in 10 years ago. When I was younger I thought Reddit had some of the smartest conversation online and I learned a lot from it. But the corporatization, endless repost bots, brain dead comments. I truly hope something new succeeds.