Last month, the Russian government released a draft of the proposed 2026–2028 federal budget, which purports to show the near-term priorities of President Vladimir Putin.
Vladimir Milov, a Russian opposition politician who left Russia after Putin’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, has released a pessimistic assessment of the former KGB lieutenant colonel’s chances of being able to continue to bankroll his war in Ukraine.
In his latest report for the Foundation, he projects rough times ahead for Moscow due to a series of unfavorable trends.
According to his analysis, Russia’s budgetary situation is anything but “normal.”
Well, don’t expect a popular uprising any time soon. The KGB have totally depoliticised the Russian people. They believe they have no control over the fate of their country. If Russia fails, it will be because of economic failure at a basic level, where the country’s food, transportation, and energy systems all just stop working. And nobody in Russia will care, or do anything to stop it.
It’s interesting that the KGB has engineered a country uniquely capable of letting itself die.
Plot twist: Turmp announces $40bn Russia bailout. 😬
I’ve been hearing this for years now, and predictably, nothing happened.
What’s different this time?
And how trustworthy is this source? I’ve seen many a blog like this one that is just sponsored messages from state X wanting to make state Y look bad
I was thinking the same thing, so I looked them up:
https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/national-security-journal-bias-and-credibility/
I guess it’s real. Just not popular.
the price of oil is low and Russian refineries can’t refine and deliver vast amounts of oil due to attacks.
Though Russia has in the past found effective ways to get around what would have truly been crippling financial situations. They have been very resourceful in the past. It just gets harder and harder each time . They are just in a worse situation in all ways year on year.
This time they will get past it, but they are getting depleted. I just don’t see them ending the war until the choice is out their hands.
Media has fallen off a cliff in the last few years. Nobody but some of the older, more respected institutions do anything but publish rage-bait, pandering nonsense and clickbait headlines and filler stories meant to get grabbed by algorithms in content aggregation social media sites so they get traffic. It’s doing all of us a lot of harm being fed just the shit we want to hear, it’s literally why we have people arguing about the shape of the Earth right now.
I’d argue that that mostly goes for American (and maybe just English) outlets, though.
I’ve seen this much, much less in outlets in European countries, for example
How many times over the last few years has Russia been days away from defeat?
I, too, am tired of these “any minute now” nonsense about Russia’s potential fall. The problem with people is the craving for instant gratification and results. We’re so pathetic in that regard.
People with longer optics will say that Putinist Russia will fall, but it will be at any time in the coming years. It’s always a slow burn just like US decline since Iraq and Afgan war. Imperialist escapades will always have negative consequences to the imperialist state which reverberate across time. The only winner coming out of both US and Russian declines is China. Maybe India and Brazil will benefit from this as well. Perhaps Europe as well if Europe could decouple from the US in due time.
Always about to run out of money and need peace talks, yet also always ready to strike a sneak attack on all of NATO without a moment’s notice.
It’s a catch 22 for Putin. If he quits the war now, he will face domestic coup because it showed how weak he is. If he continues the war longer, it will jeopardise the entire future of the Russian country even further.
I hope Putin’s Russia just implodes as the people who’ve been stuck under him can have a government that actually respects them.
Preferably with like a implosion of the Kremlin.
Just as many as this is what will get taken down by lawsuits|investigations|scandals
Days is exaggeration, but there does seem to be mounting evidence that Putin may be looking for a way out of the war over the next year or so.
Might, exactly! But there is China and North Korea who can fund Russia too.
That was the most surprising thing I read in this article, though:
Even The People’s Republic of China (PRC), which was seen as a potential lender at one time, has turned down Russian requests for government loans.
Don’t forget about Uncle Donny!
Why would they, though?
They lend money with interest or anything else in exchange. This can be minerals, manufacturing facilities, weapons or anything that might help in a trade war.
Don’t worry. Trump will bail them out.
The truth speaker.
Ha you beat me to it!
Haven’t people been saying this for a couple years now?
Yes but sanctions take years to take effect because they accumulate over time.
They’ve been slow rolled which has slowed the effects, but Ukraine’s “kinetic” sanctions have accelerated the effects back up.
I fucking love your concept of kinetic sanctions.
In the end does it matter?
Xi seems willing to prop up Russia indefinitely and the west isn’t willing to dump China, so it doesn’t really matter if some Russian banks fall, since the regime will keep getting infinite money.
Oh joy, china will effectively own russia at some point without having to even have a conflict for it. I really dont want china as neighbour, even russia seems better…
This is a smart and more humane way of becoming the world’s leading superpower than war.
I’m under no illusions about china being benevolent or perfect but given the way things are going in the west I’m not sure I believe anymore that china rising to increasing prominence in the world stage is necessarily a bad thing.
its just that china has tendency to mess with their direct neighbours
I haven’t seen that same willingness. China is willing to profit from Russia and wants a non-western aligned source of raw materials.
They seem to be giving just enough support to stop Russia from collapsing.
It’s possible for china to give Russia enough aid to basically cause Ukraine to capitulate. I just haven’t seen much to indicate anything near that support.
Yes, it does.
Xi seems willing to prop up Russia indefinitely
Definitely not.
Remember: China wants it’s former territories back that Russia took over during what China calls “The Century of Humiliation”.
Xi wants Russia’s war with Ukraine to continue for as long as possible, because the longer the war goes on for, the weaker Russia becomes, and the easier it will be for China to take back that territory.
That money isn’t free though. There are consequences attached to it.
.
You people surely don’t know this but once a state like Russia runs out of money, they will just simply start printing money. How much? As much as they need. Inflation would be a tertiary problem for them
They can’t print usdies or yuan. And they sure as hell can’t make a microchip.
They’ve been saying this for a year now.
I’d say since 2 months into the war.
Fuck Russia, fuck Putin, but those headlines can be interpreted as : “It’s useless to keep fighting they’re gonna collapse anyway”. Sometimes I wonder if it’s some astro turfing
Money is fictional anyways. If they want to, Moscow can print literally arbitrary amounts of Rubels. There’s no way they’re gonna bankrupt.
What could be interesting, however, is see how the economic situation unfolds for everyday people.
Money is fictional anyways. If they want to, Moscow can print literally arbitrary amounts of Rubels. There’s no way they’re gonna bankrupt.
Germany printed more money during a certain world war…
It didn’t work out great for them
If I’m not mistaken, their inflation and interest rates are already crazy high, nearing 20%. Yes, they can print even more money, but it won’t give them more resources from abroad, and they’re already nearing the point where they might spiral into hyperinflation.
Fingers crossed 🤞
They still have a huge ransomware industry. Presumably the state will squeeze the cybercrime gangs to take more and funnel all the takings to the great patriotic war rather than buying lambos.
Don’t worry Vlad, your puppet pumpkin is good at bailing out your kind
Russia prints its own money. It’s not like there’s a savings account that they’re running dry, they can just print more whenever they want.
This article is cope.
That is not how economics work.
If you wanna see extreme case search hyper inflation in Hungary after ww2. There was basically a time when every 15 hours price of everything doubled because the goverment just kept printing more money.
That is not how economics work either.
Inflation is kinda irrelevant, what matters is the people’s buying power, i.e. how much they can afford to buy based on their wages.
And the wages are determined on the labor market based on supply and demand: If there’s high demand for human workers, wages are higher.
And demand for human workers largely depends on how much employment opportunities the state creates. Like, if the state just begins to randomly construct public transport and public infrastructure and more energy production sites and also clean water pipes and lots of other stuff, that creates construction jobs and drives up wages which means people can buy more stuff.
That has literally nothing to do with how much money the government prints, and it doesn’t really matter if the cost of bread is $2 or $20 as long as your wages rise just as quickly.
Printing money does not create wealth. I.e. it does not create new jobs. What it does is it dilutes the wealth.
It can be tool to revitalize the economy in hopes getting people to spend more and help them pay their loans or getting new ones, ir short term help goverment build something/try to pay their debts, but on its own printing money just creates inflation.
So when somebody on internet says “oh, they can just print money” its not how it works.
Printing money does not create wealth but printing money and then spending it on public construction projects (like public transport) does create jobs and wealth for the general population.
That’s… REALLY not what Russia spends it’s money on.
Supply and demand. As long as there is demand for Russian rubles, and there are as long as Asia trades with them, then inflation will be kept in check. Inflation is caused when supply outpaces demand.
That’s not actually how those things go together… how…? Ah, lemmy.ml, explains it
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